Covid-variant-ba-2-86-triples

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the BA.2.86 variant is responsible for nearly 1 in 10 new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. This is almost triple the estimate from two weeks ago. The highest prevalence of this variant is seen in the Northeast, with 13.1% of cases in the New York and New Jersey region attributed to the BA.2.86 strain. Previously, BA.2.86 was grouped with other BA.2 strains, 

but now it is listed as a standalone variant due to its increased prevalence. The CDC’s estimates have a wide margin of error, suggesting that anywhere from 4.8% to 15.2% of circulating SARS-CoV-2 could be from the BA.2.86 variant.

Despite the rise in prevalence, the CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO) believe that BA.2.86 poses a low public health risk and does not appear to lead to worse or different symptoms than previous strains. The WHO recently classified BA.2.86 and its descendants as a “variant of interest” due to an increase in cases from this strain.

The CDC has also reported a renewed increase in COVID-19 indicators across the U.S., particularly in emergency department visits, as the country enters the winter season. The Midwestern region is experiencing some of the highest increases, nearing levels not seen since early January.

Another descendant of BA.2.86 called JN.1 has been identified as the fastest-growing subvariant worldwide. It has been particularly prevalent in Europe, including France, where it accounts for 10% of sequences. Early investigations have not shown any alarming signals regarding JN.1 compared to other BA.2.86 infections.

The CDC expects that COVID-19 tests and treatments will continue to be effective against JN.1, and this season’s COVID-19 vaccines, which target XBB variants, are likely to offer some protection against JN.1 as well. However, JN.1 has shown greater resistance to neutralizing antibodies from vaccination or prior infection compared to other variants.

covid-variant-ba-2-86-triples

Overall, while BA.2.86 and its descendant JN.1 are increasing in prevalence, they are not currently driving significant increases in infections or hospitalizations in the United States, according to the CDC.

Counties with the Highest Rates of COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

According to recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States have been on the rise. The number of new hospitalizations increased by approximately 10% over the seven days ending on November 18, 2023. This marks the second consecutive weekly increase after a period of declining hospitalizations since early September.

When considering hospitalizations relative to population, the data shows that there were 5.5 new COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 people during the week through November 18. Most states across the country reported a “low” level of hospitalizations per 100,000 people, with one exception. West Virginia had a rate of 11.9 hospitalizations per 100,000 people, which was classified as a “medium” level of hospitalizations by the CDC.

Comparing the previous week, North Dakota experienced the highest percentage increase in its rate of new COVID-19 hospitalizations among states, with a 68% increase. On the other hand, Alaska saw the largest decrease at 41%.

Among patients visiting emergency departments, approximately 1.5% were diagnosed with COVID-19 nationally, slightly higher than the previous week. New Mexico and West Virginia reported the highest rates of COVID-19 diagnosis in emergency departments, at 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively.

Looking specifically at U.S. counties, the CDC identified 52 counties with a “high” level of new COVID-19 hospital admissions during the week ending November 18. These counties had rates of 20 or more hospital admissions per 100,000 people. Linn County in Missouri had the highest rate among these counties, with 50.3 hospital admissions per 100,000 people.

Additionally, 416 counties were classified as having a “medium” level of COVID-19 hospital admissions, with rates ranging from 10.0 to 19.9 per 100,000 people.

It’s important to note that the CDC’s county hospital admission figures are calculated at the Health Service Area (HSA) level, which can include multiple counties. Therefore, counties within the same HSA will share the same admission rates in the data. Some areas may also be listed as having insufficient data.

Since hospitalization rates are calculated per 100,000 people, even a relatively small number of hospitalizations can lead to higher rates in smaller communities.

While the latest data shows a decline in deaths compared to previous peaks, hundreds of people are still dying from COVID-19. Kansas had 4.6% of its total deaths attributed to COVID-19 during the week ending November 18, higher than the national average of 2.6%.

Please note that this information is based on provisional data and may be subject to change as new data becomes available.

This article has been updated with new data on November 27, 2023.

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After three years of the Covid-19 pandemic, there is a lack of enthusiasm among Americans to receive a Covid vaccine.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of November 18, only 15.7% of U.S. adults had received the latest Covid shots from Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax. These shots, which were approved in mid-September, target the omicron subvariant XBB.1.5.

In an update on its website last week, the CDC acknowledged that Covid-19 vaccine uptake is lower than desired and that most people will be without the additional protection that can reduce the severity of Covid-19.

Some vaccine manufacturers and health experts believe that vaccination rates in the U.S. for Covid will likely remain low in 2024 and beyond, similar to the current low uptake of the latest round of shots during the fall and winter.

The main uncertainty is whether rates could increase in the future and what factors would motivate more people to get vaccinated.

Some experts are hopeful that a new slate of shots targeting multiple respiratory viruses could boost Covid vaccinations by making the process more convenient. However, others are skeptical about whether these combination shots will make a significant difference.

Despite a decrease in Covid cases from their peak during the pandemic, low vaccination rates remain a concern for experts and vaccine manufacturers. Vaccines are still crucial in protecting people from severe infections, hospitalization, and death caused by Covid, which continues to claim lives in the U.S. every day. A lower number of vaccinations could leave many individuals, particularly older adults and those with underlying medical conditions, vulnerable to severe infections.

Additionally, lower vaccination rates leave the U.S. less prepared for potential new variants of the virus that could lead to another surge in cases and hospitalizations, warned Dr. Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist and chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington.

The reasons behind some people not taking Covid vaccines vary. Since the initial rollout of vaccines in late 2020, there has been a decline in vaccine uptake as Americans have felt less urgency to protect themselves due to a decrease in Covid infections.

According to a recent poll by health policy research organization KFF, approximately half of previously vaccinated adults cited a lack of concern about Covid as a reason for not getting a new vaccine, with a quarter considering it a major reason.

This reasoning reflects several factors. Mokdad explained that Covid infections have not significantly increased in the U.S. this year compared to previous years of the pandemic. Additionally, people have developed immunity from prior vaccinations or infections, which provides some protection against severe illness from the virus. Furthermore, data suggests that omicron variants, which are currently dominant in the U.S., tend to be less severe than some previous variants.

As Mokdad put it, some individuals may think, “I had it before, and it didn’t really affect me. So why should I get vaccinated?”

According to a poll conducted by KFF, nearly 40% of adults have said that they’ve been too busy to get the new Covid shot. Jennifer Kates, senior vice president of KFF, suggests that some Americans may not be accustomed to treating the Covid vaccination as a routine activity for their health. Dr. Brad Pollock, chair of UC Davis Health’s department of public health sciences, 

adds that others may not prioritize Covid shots due to confusion about their personal risk levels and the benefits of boosters. Additionally, a group of Americans remain skeptical about the safety and efficacy of Covid vaccines, which is further exacerbated by political polarization.

The poll also revealed that only 23% of Republican respondents said they had or would get the latest Covid shot this fall or winter, compared to 40% of independents and 74% of Democrats.

Dr. Nicole Iovine, chief hospital epidemiologist and infectious disease physician at the University of Florida, suggests that the lack of urgency surrounding Covid could impact uptake in the coming years. However, she notes that those who receive the new Covid vaccine this fall will likely continue getting future iterations. Jefferies analyst Michael Yee agrees, stating that patients at high risk of severe Covid who are open to vaccination would find it reasonable to take it each year.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla and Moderna Chief Commercial Officer Arpa Garay assume that vaccination rates in 2024 and beyond will be similar to those seen this fall and winter. They expect that people who received the Covid booster in 2023 will continue to get the vaccine in subsequent years. 

Novavax Chief Operating Officer John Trizzino believes there is logic and reality to Pfizer and Moderna’s predictions but cautions that 2023 may not be entirely indicative of future vaccination rates due to the adjustment period and distribution delays.

Combination shots that target both Covid and other viruses, such as the one developed by Novavax, are expected to enter the market in a few years. Pfizer, Moderna, and experts agree that combination shots could increase vaccination rates by providing greater convenience to patients and healthcare workers.

However, some experts are skeptical about the impact of combination shots on vaccination rates. Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax are developing vaccines targeting various combinations of Covid, flu, and respiratory syncytial virus. Childhood vaccines have successfully used combination shots to increase vaccination rates by reducing the number of injections needed during a doctor’s visit.

Although studies suggest that a combination shot targeting Covid and the flu could boost vaccination rates, Dr. Iovine believes it may not significantly affect Covid vaccination rates. She explains that while combination shots may be attractive to those who already receive vaccines or seek convenience, they may not change the minds of those who are hesitant due to skepticism or concerns about safety and efficacy.

If combination shots do not lead to increased vaccination rates, it remains unclear what else could boost Covid vaccination rates in the future. Dr. Iovine suggests that a new, more concerning Covid variant could create urgency for vaccination. However, past surges in cases did not result in significant increases in vaccination rates. 

Jennifer Kates from KFF suggests that public health officials and providers can increase uptake by clearly communicating that Covid shots will become a routine part of healthcare moving forward. 

The FDA and CDC are aiming for a flu shot-like model for Covid vaccines, where individuals receive an updated jab targeting the latest variant each year. However, there are concerns about whether the virus is seasonal like the flu. Establishing an annualized approach to Covid vaccination will take time.

The Impact of the Pandemic on Life Expectancy in the United States

Recently published data on life expectancy in the United States reveals a partial rebound from the worst phase of the coronavirus pandemic. However, the country continues to face a long-term mortality crisis driven by factors such as drug overdoses, homicides, and chronic illnesses like heart disease. These ongoing challenges have made the United States an outlier among wealthy nations in terms of longevity.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), life expectancy in 2022 increased by more than a full year to reach 77.5 years. The majority of this improvement can be attributed to a decline in COVID-19 deaths. However, the CDC report highlights that the rebound in 2022 only recovered less than half of the years lost during the pandemic.

Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, expressed concern over the level of recovery, noting that other countries experienced smaller drops in life expectancy and rebounded more quickly from the impact of COVID-19. 

The United States saw a significant decrease in life expectancy from 78.8 years in 2019 to 76.4 years in 2021, the lowest since 1996. This decline was partly due to the high number of COVID-19 deaths in early 2021 when vaccination efforts had just begun. Another wave of deaths occurred during the following winter as the Omicron variant surged.

While there has been some recovery from COVID-19, experts emphasize that there is still much progress to be made. William Schaffner, an infectious disease physician at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, highlights that COVID-19 remains a concern, particularly among older individuals and those who are immunocompromised.

The United States’ struggle with chronic diseases and slower progress in addressing them have put the nation in a vulnerable position when faced with a novel virus. The response to the pandemic, which was scattered and politically polarized, played a role in the high death toll. Additionally, resistance to vaccination and other public health measures further exacerbated the situation. Among wealthy nations, the United States experienced one of the highest rates of death per capita from COVID-19.

While the newly published data indicates a positive change compared to 2021, it also underscores the long-lasting impact of the pandemic. Between 2019 and 2021, life expectancy decreased by 2.4 years, and the increase in 2022 only restored 1.1 years of that deficit. Men lost 2.8 years during this period, while women lost 2.1 years.

The United States faces challenges beyond the pandemic when it comes to life expectancy. The Washington Post’s analysis of death data highlights that chronic conditions such as heart disease, obesity, diabetes, and cancer also contribute to lower life spans. Life expectancy peaked at 78.9 years in 2014 but has since remained stagnant or declined through 2019. The recent CDC data suggests that this period of disappointing life expectancy will likely continue.

Comparing international data for 2022, countries like Sweden, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway have shown quicker recovery from the pandemic compared to the United States. Sweden’s life expectancy in 2022 returned to pre-pandemic levels at 83.1 years, over five and a half years longer than that of the United States.

The report also highlights racial and ethnic disparities in life expectancy that were exacerbated by the pandemic. Native Americans experienced the greatest overall decline in life expectancy, with a decrease of almost four years to less than 68 years. Black Americans had the second-largest setback, with a decrease of two years, followed by Hispanic individuals with a decline of 1.9 years. White individuals experienced a decline of 1.3 years, while Asian individuals saw a decline of 1.1 years.

The provisional nature of the CDC report emphasizes the need for continued efforts to address public health challenges. The lingering effects of the pandemic and other health issues underscore the importance of maintaining comprehensive childhood vaccination programs and combating vaccine skepticism.

In conclusion, although there has been a partial rebound in life expectancy in the United States following the worst phase of the pandemic, there are significant challenges that continue to impact longevity. Addressing chronic illnesses and ongoing health disparities will be crucial for improving life expectancy in the future.

The Rise of HV.1: A Highly Contagious Covid-19 Variant Sweeping the United States

The United States is currently grappling with the spread of a new highly contagious Covid-19 variant known as HV.1. This variant has quickly become the dominant strain in the country, surpassing even the previously dominant EG.5 (Eris) variant. Worldwide, EG.5 remains the most prevalent strain.

According to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), HV.1 has been responsible for more than a quarter of all newly diagnosed Covid-19 death cases since the end of October. During a two-week period ending on October 28, the variant accounted for an estimated 25.2% of all cases.

In response to the surge in HV.1 cases, health officials have begun examining the variant in order to better understand its characteristics and develop strategies to mitigate its impact, particularly during the upcoming winter season.

It is worth noting that HV.1, along with other prevalent Covid-19 strains in the US such as EG.5, FL.1.5.1 (Fornax), and XBB.1.16 (Arcturus), are all offshoots of the Omicron variant. Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, described HV.1 as a “grandchild” of Omicron due to their close genetic relationship.

The prevalence of HV.1 has rapidly increased over time. In late July, the variant accounted for only 0.5% of Covid-19 cases. However, by September 30, it had risen to 12.5%, and by November, it had become the most dominant strain in the US, according to CDC data.

Dr. William Schaffner has also outlined some common symptoms associated with the HV.1 variant, which include sore throat, congestion or stuffiness, runny nose, cough, headache, fatigue, and muscle aches or chills.

While HV.1 is spreading rapidly, scientists are not overly concerned about variants like HV.1 compared to highly mutated strains that pose greater risks. Two such strains mentioned are BA.2.86 (Pirola), which has 36 additional distinctive mutations compared to XBB.1.5, and JN.1, which has one more mutation than Pirola.

List of variants

As health officials continue to monitor and study the HV.1 variant, it is crucial for individuals to remain vigilant and adhere to recommended preventive measures such as vaccination, mask-wearing, and practicing good hygiene. By staying informed and taking necessary precautions, we can collectively combat the spread of Covid-19 and its variants.

Stay safe and take care!

Note: The information provided in this blog post is based on the available data and expert opinions at the time of writing. The situation regarding Covid-19 and its variants may evolve, so it is advisable to stay updated through reliable sources such as official health organizations.

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